Labour Is Doing Far Worse Than Anticipated and Here’s Why
According to regular opinion polling, first starting in the 1940’s, the Labour Party is at its most unpopular time.
Analysis by the Press Association shows that Labour, have never been this far behind eight months after a general election. Of course Labour have been behind the Tories before, however an 8 point gap has never opened up so quickly. In addition to this, the election of Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader, did not even allow a boost in the polls. As normal as this may sound however, it is actually rather detrimental taking into account that opposition parties always perform better in polls when a new leader is elected.
Lord David Triesman mentioned that Mr Corbyn’s two landslide leadership victories were “completely different” from winning a general election. He told The House magazine: “I think the position for the party is genuinely very grim and I don’t see any real point in trying to hide from the reality. Winning a majority in the party, as Jeremy did, is not anything like winning a majority in the country.”
What does this mean for UKIP?
The UK Independence Party is on track to win a decisive victory in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election, polling six points ahead of its main rival, the Labour Party.
A poll conducted by Leave.eu has surveyed more than 4,000 constituents. This poll found that in the Midlands city, the support for UKIP stood by 39%. The support for Labour was only 33%.
If these numbers are correct, it will place the UKIP leader Paul Nuttall in the House Of Commons, giving UKIP the power they deserve.
“Conservative supporters seem to be breaking towards UKIP whilst Labour are losing support to both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP,” a leave.eu spokesman said in a press release. In addition to this, it will give confidence to other UKIP supporters to go out and vote. Despite the fact that the numbers aren’t exceedingly high, a little always goes a long way. Especially with conservatism and the right on the rise.
We all hope to see similar swings across the north over the next general election in 2020. This would hand UKIP significant numbers of seats in the British Parliament for the first time ever.
Leave.eu are always confident about the polls that they are regularly releasing. It was also added that “The model predicted a 52 to 48 outcome and was within 0.2% of the final result. Similar techniques have been used in the US where Donald Trump’s presidential election victory was accurately predicted.”
Will we get what we deserve?