Soft or Hard BREXIT? Does it matter? What now for UKIP?
First I am not here to defend the curious antics of various Cabinet spokespeople whose random quotes have been hitting the headlines. I am especially not going to defend the curious comments of the thoroughly house trained (by the Treasury) Philip Hammond.
To an extent the rampant ramblings of these lackeys is possibly a ploy. Confuse the enemy while entrenching your position. Do we really think Mrs. May has such a plan though? She may well have.
The problem with this debate is that the elements of truth contained in assorted rambling pronouncements is overlooked by the main stream press and media and especially in social media where instant inaccurate headlines are favoured over sensible debate. Bias is more clear in the social media outlets but that means we need to be very certain to check the source. Where did this come from and what bias would we expect? It is vital we check the credentials of each source.
One of the difficulties in social media is that everyone that writes is an “expert” in their own eyes. They use terms they have corrupted by their own interpretation. Hence “libertarians” tend to be nothing of the sort. Liberals turn out to be rampant communists. Conservatives tend to be red-necks
Enough about the politicians though.
What Are Our Best Interests?
At the outset I realised that a sudden BREXIT would injure our own interests. Therefore it was essential the negotiated settlement should provide for a transition over a period. This protects us and our economy from any “sudden shook” and provides time to enable us to establish new trading relationships with other countries. It is clear those relationships may take time and a transitional period would give us the necessary breathing space.
This does not mean a transition to a partway member. It means an agreed implementation of BREXIT over a strict timetable. Hammond, as often, had sense in what he said. His problem was the manner of the delivery and the use of Civil Service prepared speeches that are intended to obfuscate and create ambiguity. To the average Civil Servant Charles Dickens’ novels must appear to have the language of some futuristic science fiction.
There is nothing “soft” about transition though. It merely delivers the time to make the process smooth and uneventful. That is the best outcome. It has to be obvious to everyone that when we leave the EU that entity will be subject to stresses and strains the like of which Europe has not seen since 1945. However, freedom of movement of people must cease on BREXIT day.
The EU is in Something Soft and Unpleasant!
Suddenly the EU is deprived of one of its principle contributors. The balance of power will shift. The recipients of our money will now turn to squabbling over who should pay. In their view: certainly not they themselves. The other contributing countries will dig their heels in and try to refuse to make up the difference. Make no mistake. Our departure leaves the EU in a hole. No wonder they are trying to screw us for every penny.
So why does that matter?
First they must not be allowed to rob us anymore but we certainly do not want an unstable EU erupting into a major catastrophic war, right on our doorstep. The squabbles have every prospect of escalating into that. Several EU countries are pretty bankrupt and desperately need, in truth, to leave it. The Eastern bloc is imposing migration restrictions way outside of permitted EU policy. Good for them but that does mean they would need to be expelled or the EU will never be able to enforce any Directive it ever issues ever again. Watch as indecision brings down the whole EU project.
Our Problems and the Benefits.
Our problems are minor compared with that. We can choose to cease free trade with rEU and protect our own car manufacturing capability in so doing. We can, on the other hand, retain a free trade arrangement BUT that must mean we are free to regulate as we see fit. Clearly the EU may regulate what is sold in their markets but the contrived barriers created by some of those regulations must not prevail.
Under either arrangement British made cars could replace the German, Italian and French labelled vehicles (albeit often manufactured in the third world) as our manufacturers are better able to compete. Already, simply by means of a long overdue devaluation of the pound, our manufacturing industry is showing signs of a revival.
The Leadership of the Conservative Party.
I suggest it is better to take a long cool look at our prospects. Phillip Hammond is never going to be Prime Minister. That rumour needs to be scotched. There is little or no prospect of Teresa May being removed unless she can be shown, demonstrably, to have failed over BREXIT. Dream on you conspiracy theorists. The Conservative Party excels at survival and one of the ways it does this is to ditch its leader at the most opportune moment. Now is not opportune.
….. and then to UKIP!
Meanwhile UKIP is becoming ever more bitterly divided. It is hard, now, to anticipate it will survive in its present form. The original message that UKIP brought must survive and it will not in a party dominated by homophobes and various isms.
The UKIP Establishment are fighting to prevent the members from being the driving force. It may well be, therefore, the members will leave and reform under another more democratic banner. The present ludicrous leadership campaign is making matters worse.
What everyone does need to do, however, is scrutinise the candidates and test them out. Do they, for example, answer question? Can they explain the how rather than deliver wish lists?
The Role of UKIP and the Dangers.
Now, more than ever, we need a strong BREXIT voice coupled with the attachment of reason, evidence and pragmatism to policy. The foaming rabid wing must shut up shop. The debate must be in reasoned language OR ELSE both party and nation are in deep peril. It is time to drop euphemisms, such as “libertarian” in favour of statements that say what they mean. We must not be a party driven by a bunch of extremists who conceal their true intent, for the time being.
A Word of Caution.
For those who have opportunistically begun to advocate the Liberal Policy of Proportional Representation. It was PR that led to the National Socialists taking power in Germany. Beware of unintended consequences!
© PJW Holland MMXVII