Lies, Damned Lies, Migration and Government


In an earlier article I outlined how, by deception, the Government takes a far greater proportion of your income than its own statements would suggest.  The lengths to which Government and its bureaucrats go to conceal the truth is quite astounding.  To investigate the truth behind its statements requires a considerable degree of persistence and patience.

The Office for National Statistics and Government Lies/Statistics!

The Office for National Statistics provides a whole range of figures and graphs.  All of them are designed to bury the facts.  Simplistic graphs avoid mentioning there is no adjustment for inflation.  GDP figures bury the details of the changes to population and the effect that has on Government spending.  It must be obvious to anyone that an increase in the population of 2.8 million people necessarily requires an increase in spending on the NHS, social care and Local Government directly proportional to the increase.

To keep pace with the population changes and inflation alone, over the six year period 2010 to 2016, would require an increase of 16% in Government spending.  This increase in population is exactly what happened in that period.  The increase is 20% greater than the population of the West Midlands Conurbation (2.44 million) and demonstrates the true level of migration. Population growth in the indigenous people is static.  It is clear the true level of net migration is 470,000 per year.  This is far greater than the dishonest figures published by Government.

The NHS

Has spending matched the increase in demand?  No.  Spending on the NHS in cash terms has increased in cash terms certainly.  It is hard to track down the exact figures since, mysteriously, the National Office for Statistics either does not report them or has buried them so successfully they cannot be located.  The IFS buries the detail by concentrating on the entire history of the NHS rather than looking closely at recent figures.

Spending on the NHS has increased from £98 billion in 2010 to around £116 billion per annum.  On the face of it that looks as though the increases should have matched inflation and population growth.  It is worth remembering that during the period there has been a pay freeze in the NHS and nurses, for example, have had a real terms cut in their pay of around 10%.

The NHS has seen its costs CUT dramatically while its relative income has grown.  So where is the money going?  The truth must surely be that new migrants have a disproportionate dependence on the NHS.  The high rate of births among these groups and the incidence of ailments that had been eliminated in the UK or which were completely unknown here create very considerable costs.  The suspicion has to remain that most of the money is being wasted on pointless bureaucracy.

Local Government, which is required to deliver social care, has had its funding slashed dramatically.

The Truth: Gross Domestic Product Per Capita

The ONS publish figures but they are not corrected for inflation.  The introduction of the use of CPI instead of RPI has meant pensions and other incomes have been steadily reducing.  All three of the old order political parties have conspired to attack the incomes of the elderly, by stealth.  The following chart shows the true effects of population growth, inflation and the falls in GDP per capita.  In the six years from 2010 there was a ten percent reduction in GDP per capita.

The truth about GDP

What this means is that the proportion of national income devoted to services has necessarily to increase simply to stand still.  This can be achieved only in two ways.  Taxes must increase or borrowing must increase.  Despite having a smaller pool to draw from Government income has been increasing steadily.

The increasing use of obscure hidden forms of stealth taxation is the chosen tool of the mandarins and this, the most regressive form of taxation, is what is depressing living standards.  This is to blame for the demise of your corner shop, public house, night club, cinema and town and city centres.  People are consumers.  These businesses depend on the prosperity of consumers.

The catastrophic decline in that prosperity means those people stay at home and watch the telly.  The next economies will, surely, be on what people are prepared to spend on that.

The Folly of Depending on the Service Sector

In the meantime the type of taxes being deployed are entirely responsible for our increasing lack of competitivity in the world.  These taxes are direct costs on production.  They have to be absorbed.  This means it becomes increasingly impossible to export at a profit.  The service sector is filling the gap but that cannot be a permanent state of affairs.  Everything the service sector does can easily be copied and then delivered locally.  In time it will.  Services can only ever be a stop-gap.

The Dangers of a Trade Deficit

The dependence on taxes levied indirectly and directly on the consumer means we subsidise imports and penalise exports.  We have to be a trading nation to survive.  We have to trade to eat.  Politicians of the old order fail to grasp this fairly simple concept.

Let us hope a new invigorated UKIP leadership will begin to understand and promote the solutions.  Let us hope, then, other parties emulate them.  To survive in the “wider world” depends on this.  I have no confidence a plodding accountant will ever grasp the realities of the situation.  No business, driven by its accountants, ever survives.  Mr. Hammond is an accountant.

The last and only Prime Minister ever to recognise the potential, for catastrophe represented by an ever increasing Trade Deficit, was Harold Wilson.  When he threatened to take actions to correct the problem he was subverted by the Establishment.  Rather than deal with the issues the traitorous Heath took us into the EEC/EU.  That was merely an inept attempt to camouflage the problem.

The Escape From Foreign Rule

By chance the people of the UK have had the chance to deliver their verdict and despite all the might of the State and the Establishment applying duress the people made the right decision to escape the tyranny of foreign rule.  All we need now is a Government committed to tackling the iniquity of stealth taxation and delivering an honest fiscal programme.

In the short term that could well mean an increase in visible taxes.  In the longer term it will mean Government spending and taxation fall as a proportion of GDP simply because the conditions necessary to promote trade will be so much more favourable. This is real growth and not simply growth in the profits of the over-rich.

The Stability of Mrs. May’s Regime

Do I trust Mrs. May to deliver on that?  No!  That is why a hung Parliament is a good thing.  It means that as soon as the opposition parties have recovered the cost of the last two elections there will be another election.  That is likely to be about two years away, just after we have LEFT the EU.

UKIP needs to be ready and that means the very serious process of debating policy and philosophy has to be now.  A half-hearted survey designed without any reference to the membership will not do.  There has to be a full scale process of reform of the Constitution and Rules.  Otherwise UKIP will be in the dustbin of history and a new party will emerge.

We Must Deal With the Fruitcakes

This means the rabid among us need to be answered.  UKIP’s approach cannot be based on a philosophy of pure individual greed, spite and selfishness.  It cannot focus solely on some single issue however much revulsion that provokes in the breast of some.  Likewise it must be intolerant of waste.

It is time for realism.  A smaller State can only happen if per capita GDP increases.  That can only happen if there is wider reform within the political structures of the State.  UKIP has to be the vehicle driving us to THAT destination.  Everything else must take second place.

 

ONS Chart1

ONS graphs of % changes to RPI 1987 – 2017

ONS Chart of RPI 1987 – 2017


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