OPINION: Lies, Damned Lies And Opinion Polls

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You may have noticed a recent glut of pro-Remain propaganda masquerading as opinion poll reporting. The most recent poll for YouGuv found 64% wanted a second referendum and a 11% lead for Remain.

So far, so bad right? Well, not quite. Firstly, looking at the results as reported, there is a growing recognition that ‘No Deal Brexit’ is the only outcome that actually delivers Brexit and that anything less than a clean break Brexit would be a betrayal (48% of all those polled, 78% of Brexit voters).

Only 20% believe that the government cannot deliver a good Brexit deal, 67% don’t trust the government. However, when it comes to a theoretical second referendum, the most popular option was a three-way contest between May’s Deal, No Deal and Remain and 49% still see ‘No Deal’ as a ‘bad outcome’.

This is the rub. Opinion polls reflect peoples perception of what they believe the dominant expectation is on them and also a reflection of the psychological war being waged against them. You could, for example, say that support for a second referendum is a product of weariness of the Brexit process and frustration with a government people don’t trust rather than genuine enthusiasm for another vote. Clearly, the high-proportion of people fearing a No Deal is a product of Project Fear but the growing recognition it is what constitutes a proper Brexit is welcome.

All this being said, opinion polls cannot be taken as a gospel opinion on what people want. Ed Miliband sent almost his entire tenure as Labour Leader in the lead in the polls, frequently by as much as 20%, but when it came to polling day he still lost because although it was a nice idea perhaps, a Labour Government under Miliband is ultimately NOT what people wanted at all.

So, don’t be spooked by the latest barrage of polling data. It is all smoke and mirrors and part of the viscous war being waged against Brexiteers by the Remain establishment.

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4 Responses

  1. Chris FAREY says:

    Damn good fact-based article. However, it misses one point: People listen to these polls, including politicians. So, although inaccurate, this poll will still hit its target.

  2. StuartJ says:

    -“The most recent poll for YouGov found 64% wanted a second referendum and a 11% lead for Remain.”

    The truth is that is the result only of the people selected to take part in the opinion poll. How many were surveyed?

    Opinion polls can be manipulated to give any result you want. Polling companies already have data on their members opinions, so I don’t believe it is a case that participants are selected ‘at random’, more like computer algorithms are used to ensure enough people are selected so the result can be skewed the way the poll commissioner wants.

    Its just another form of propaganda to manipulate peoples’ opinions.

  3. Mark says:

    The EU does not respect national votes. It has ignored every vote against it and forced reruns in Denmark, Ireland, France, Italy, Greece until it gets what it wants. The EU was set up usurp the nation state, and thats just what there doing.

  4. MIKE MAUNDER says:

    I have to own up to something Darrell. I take little to no notice of any opinion polls. I work on the facts presented, and then my own take upon opinion. I have been self correcting, and as a young, callow fellow in the 1960s, I was a believer in what I had learned from Marx and Engel. It made good sense then. So I took to my car and travelled around Europe. I was fascinated by the USSR, ( WHERE I WAS ALOWED TO GO ), but Bulgaria blew my Communism away for good. – Ouch ! – What a dump, full of ‘Failure People’, which I believe has changed considerably now. My ‘journey’ has brought me to UKIP, and I trust that I will not be disappointed !

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